Russia does not stop its information attacks on Ukraine, in particular through the Western media, and here is an opportunity. The German investigation has ended and found no direct evidence linking Ukraine to the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline, but accusing Ukraine once again is a war with a clear goal. But, as the Germans noted, “The investigation into the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline is a top priority for Germany, but its results will not harm relations with Ukraine,” said Wolfgang Büchner, a deputy spokesman for the German federal government. To understand what is happening, we need to go back many years and remember how the “flows” to Europe began. And here, an article in Dzerkalo Tyzhnia by Mykhailo Honchar, President of the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”, will be useful. In it, he tells in detail about the beginning of this project:
“The 20th anniversary of the Yalta meeting between the presidents of Ukraine and Russia was celebrated by no one but the “Viennese prisoner” Dmitry Firtash. It was then, on July 26, 2004, that Leonid Kuchma and Vladimir Putin agreed to regulate the supply and transit of natural gas and announced to the business representatives present that RosUkrEnergo (RUE) would be established to solve all the problems of bilateral relations in the gas sector. And on July 29, a package of contracts was signed for a 25-year period until 2028, and a corresponding coordinating council of the company was established in the Swiss canton of Zug. But not only an elegant Swiss scheme was created in Yalta. As the media reported at the time, the provision on Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the EU as the ultimate goal of Euro-Atlantic and European integration was removed from the Military Doctrine of Ukraine.
What happened next, after Yalta, I assume many people still remember, was the Orange Revolution, which blocked Ukraine’s political drift toward Russia, preventing the establishment of a pro-Moscow regime in Kyiv. However, it did not prevent gas fraud, which Russia took advantage of: the RUE scheme virtually captured the country’s gas market, inflated gas prices for the state-owned Naftogaz of Ukraine, and in 2006 and 2009, two “gas attacks” took place against Ukraine and the EU.
Subsequently, Russia, using and fomenting political confrontation in Ukraine with “cheap gas” despite the replacement of the RUE scheme with a bilateral agreement with bondage conditions for the Ukrainian company, caused political turbulence in our country. And it eventually brought to power the pro-Moscow regime of the Party of Regions with the Firtash-Boyko puppet group at its core. Then came the Kharkiv agreements, non-aligned status, Naftogaz’s loss to RUE in the Stockholm arbitration, the refusal of the ruling group of the Regions led by Viktor Yanukovych to pursue European integration, and the logical consequence – the Revolution of Dignity, which toppled the pro-Moscow puppet regime of the gasocracy, and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014.
The corrupt gas scheme, initiated and implemented by the KGB-FSB, worked brilliantly 20 years ago, although it did not last the allotted quarter-century. Of course, it can be noted that this was at a time when the Ukrainian economy was about three-quarters powered by Russian gas, and now the situation is radically different – only domestically produced gas is used, which meets the country’s needs by 100%. The dependence that existed was overcome back in 2015, when the last cubic meter of natural gas was imported from Gazprom on November 25. There is only a small amount of gas transit from Gazprom under the 2019 agreement, which is coming to an end this year, and it will not be extended.
“Gazprom today is not the same Gazprom that was bursting with gas profits with generous dividend payments and the Swiss practice of elegant corruption through bearer shares. Russia’s “national treasure” is now unprofitable and in an extremely problematic financial condition, which is getting worse, even according to crooked official statistics. “Gazprom has practically lost the EU market, it is not succeeding with China as well as it would like, Central Asia does not want large volumes of Russian gas, and Turkish extortionists are becoming unheard of, demanding ever greater discounts. But we shouldn’t forget that the general manager of Russian companies is sitting in the Kremlin and continues to operate according to the FSB methodology. He doesn’t know any other way, as the saying goes, only the grave will make a hunchback right.
Of course, a pure remake of RUE is impossible. But the point is that with a creative approach, you can make some modifications to the scheme, improve it and further disguise it. It is important to set the right task and turn Gazprom’s weakness into a trump card that can be used in the war against Ukraine and Europe, acting from within.
Russia’s sudden re-emergence of the gas transit issue is not accidental, not only in the context of the completion of the agreement between Naftogaz and Gazprom. Moscow began working on a two-pronged plan to save its “national treasure” and Ukraine’s gas supply in advance. As for Ukraine, the bet is on the fact that people close in spirit to the Party of Regions with Yanukovych at the helm are in power in one way or another. A kind of “young regionals” who “are not alien to anything human.” It is important to “package” everything properly. The right “packaging” is European and peacekeeping. There is nothing wrong with the latter – every iron is broadcasting information that Russia is ready for negotiations, but Ukraine is not. The “Europeanness” of the gas scheme is supposed to be ensured by Russia’s longtime and repeated Trojan horses in the EU and NATO, Hungary and Slovakia. The source of transit gas should also be beyond doubt – it should be non-Russian.
So, as we can see, the puzzles are coming together. In June, the media “suddenly” reported that Azerbaijan was ready to increase gas supplies to the EU. It is likely that the Azerbaijani cover for Russian gas was discussed during the April 22 meeting in the Kremlin between Putin and Aliyev, which was held on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Baikal-Amur Mainline. The lavish celebration of this date took place jointly with the Azerbaijani leader under the pretext that his late father Heydar Aliyev was the supervisor of the construction. Behind the scenes of the ceremonial event, it was no longer about BAM…
A couple of weeks later, on May 7, a guest from the EU arrived in Baku. Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev not only sign a declaration of strategic partnership, but also share gas plans. Aliyev talks about his intentions to increase gas supplies to Europe from the current 8 billion cubic meters to 12 billion this year, and later, he says, to reach 20 billion cubic meters in 2027. In response, Fico notes: “For obvious reasons, Russia and Ukraine can no longer export gas to Europe. We are naturally interested in supplying large volumes of gas to Slovakia. We are talking about about 20 billion cubic meters of gas per year. This will make a significant contribution to the diversification of gas supplies to Europe.”
The funny thing is that one has no free gas resources (the Shah Deniz field has reached a production plateau, and Shah Deniz-2 is largely a case of pitchforks), while the other does not need so much gas, because Slovakia consumes about 4.5 billion cubic meters per year. So, it is clear what is being said, but it is not being voiced. Excess gas does exist, and it is quite easy to get it if you use the transit scheme through Russia and Ukraine. No matter that there is no direct pipeline from Azerbaijan to Ukraine, there will be a substitution scheme, and Russian gas will go to Europe under the guise of Azerbaijani gas.
Both Budapest and Bratislava have voiced their opinion that these countries cannot do without Russian gas and oil. Viktor Orbán also joined the campaign, though more in the oil segment, but, competing with Fico, he decided to keep up with the “active measures.” Suddenly and accidentally, he appeared at the forum of the Organization of Turkic States in Shusha, Azerbaijan, on July 6, and it is obvious that the purpose of his participation was not only to make a flattering speech…
Few people paid attention to the official statement from Bankova Street after Zelenskyy and Aliyev’s May 21 phone call: “We have promising projects in energy, trade, and other areas. We instructed the teams to intensify work on their implementation and coordinated future joint events.” The Azerbaijani side noted that it was Zelenskyy who called Aliyev, not the other way around.
In mid-June, the media, particularly Russian media, began to report on Azerbaijani gas for Europe in transit through Russia and Ukraine. It was presented in the following way: some “EU officials” are negotiating and there are countries interested in Azerbaijani gas to replace Russian gas and save Ukraine’s gas transportation system, since it will not be able to operate without transit gas.
At first, Kyiv did not comment on this. But in early July, Zelenskyy himself confirmed that an agreement to replace Russian gas with Azerbaijani supplies was one of the proposals being discussed, and that government officials were now working on it. “We are now considering alternative steps on how we can use the pipeline with another gas supplier, another country. Negotiations are underway,” Zelenskyy said. ”We do not want to extend the gas contract with the Russian Federation. We don’t want them to make money here.”
Well, it sounds pretentious. But it is precisely the scheme with “Azerbaijani” gas that will not only keep Gazprom afloat, but will also provide additional revenues to the budget of Russia’s war against Ukraine. And in a ratio of about 1:10-15 (depending on prices in the EU market), that is, for every dollar paid to the Ukrainian operator for transit services from Gazprom’s European customers, the latter will receive 10-15 dollars in revenue. Of course, something will go to the Azerbaijani side as a payment for the “roof.”
“Where is the scheme?” the question arises. The scheme is that there will be no transit through Russia, or rather, it will be formalized on paper, in fact, there will be a substitution scheme. But the paper transit through Gazprom’s pipelines will be paid to a certain provider company under the codename Ros-Az-UkrTransit-Gas, registered somewhere in Switzerland or elsewhere. That is, this payment for non-existent services will become a kind of “piggy bank” for payments to those involved. That’s why the Slovak prime minister drew a big figure for the (un)needed gas that Europe allegedly needs so badly.
The President of Ukraine is being pushed down the slippery slope of gas corruption, which will lead to more accusations and conclusions that will be pushed by Russian propaganda to our Western partners: what do you expect from these Ukrainians, who want to return to their usual “gas paradise”? That is why they are ready for peace talks with the “aggressor,” and Zelenskyy is no longer demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine as a precondition.
It is worth noting that the Ukrainian information space is spreading the thesis that without transit gas, several regions of the country may be left without natural gas in winter. And among those promoting this narrative are not only people who have traditionally been contractors of the Firtash-Boyko group and Gazprom, but also those who are unwittingly playing the role of useful idiots, claiming that the continuation of gas transit will be insurance against Russian attacks on gas transportation system facilities.
It is worth recalling that in 2009, when Gazprom stopped supplying gas to both Ukraine and Europe, the GTS was reversed and supplied the country with gas from domestic production and underground storage facilities for two weeks at the peak of winter cold. There were no incidents of gas shortages in any of the regions. The previous management of the GTS Operator of Ukraine conducted numerous simulations with the participation of American experts on how the GTS would work without transit gas. The conclusions were positive: the system would retain its functionality. For some reason, Naftogaz is keeping quiet about this.
And finally. Russia has recently attacked underground gas storage facilities in the Lviv region, including in April and May. And this is in a situation where the transit agreement is still in force, and Gazprom is receiving money for selling Russian gas in Europe. In other words, the Kremlin has shown that its commercial goals of obtaining money are secondary, while its primary goal is to defeat Ukraine and Europe. After all, these are signals not only to Kyiv, but also to European companies that want to use and are using Ukrainian UGS facilities to scare them away.
As you know, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. There is still time to stop and prevent two parallel lines from crossing. To do this, we need to follow the path that leads to Ukraine’s victory, not to fancy negotiations that will smell like gas corruption and guarantee nothing. The talks in Qatar – and this is a separate topic – are another trap for the Ukrainian Defense Forces, with which Moscow wants to limit Ukrainian “deep strikes” on its territory, while retaining the freedom to damage Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
So it turns out that the articles about the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline are another part of Russia’s systemic disinformation campaign aimed at discrediting President Zelenskyy and Ukraine in general at the international level.
Semen Melnichenko